This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.
April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.
Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the bull story here has more causes than just a weak greenback.
Better seeds and more fertilizer. That's it. Those are the technology weapons in the war against food shortages caused in the short term by a worldwide obsession with biofuels (we are the worst offender, of course) and in the long term by the increased affluence in China and India, which leads to more nutritious, protein-filled diets.
Both forces, when combined with worldwide droughts and failed harvests, not augmented by the U.S. -- we are late to start with our corn season -- are driving prices up to ridiculous levels. I have no doubt that if tomorrow the president of the United States said he was suspending the biofuel mandates for ethanol that we would see a collapse in food pricing. But I also have no doubt that this inept administration could never figure that out.
So, the solution comes to all of the stocks that were crushed yesterday: Monsanto (NYSE: MON) (Cramer's Take), Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take), Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take) and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take). Without better seeds that produce higher yields, without more fertilizer that increases yields, we are going to be facing a long-term continuation of these price increases and the attendant inflation and food riots. Inflation, by the way, that has nothing to do with the Fed, unless the Fed is also a big granary hoarding wheat and corn.
Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is an integrated agribusiness, fertilizer and food products concern. The company is a leading global processor of soybeans and other grains, a leading provider of products and services to the South American farming community and a major U.S. food processor. Some of Bunge's agribusiness products are used for industrial purposes, including renewable fuels like biodiesel. Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) is a major competitor.
Investors were pleased earlier in the month, when Bunge-DuPont (NYSE: DD) joint venture Solae Company said it would increase global prices for its soy protein ingredients by up to 30%. The firm said the increases were necessary, in order to maintain a consistent level of service, innovation and investment in research.
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.
March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.
Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says three widely held beliefs are just too bullish to be true.
Sometimes it just hits you. You will be reading an article about some fund manager somewhere who sounds perfectly intelligent and you will spot it, the holy grail of the moment -- THE CONSENSUS. I won't mention the fellow's name -- it is unimportant -- because he's good at his job, but the thoughts he is currently expounding sound like many others I hear, to wit:
1. Oil prices will fall to $80 a barrel.
2. The dollar will rise when the Fed stops cutting rates.
3. GDP growth in China will slow.
First, let me just say that those events would be bullish for every domestic company in our universe, including the financials, and we would have a miracle bull market where less than 20% of the market -- ag/mineral/oil and gas/infra --collapses and fully 80% of the market can rally (I am including the health care stocks because, somehow, they have been seen to become hostage to the weak federal government, and in this scenario I don't see the federal government as worried about cutting back spending).
The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while gold has passed $1,000 and oil has continued its charge, breaking through the $110 per barrel mark.
While a good deal of this problem is home grown, the pain is being felt all around the world. We have read many stories about how the American economy is a smaller part of the global economy and becoming somewhat detached. This is nonsense. What has happened is that the global economy has become infinitely more integrated and like any integrated structure (the architect speaking), what occurs in one place is felt everywhere.
The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, has been watching the economy in an extremely measured fashion, bordering on casual. To those who see beyond Bernanke's calm demeanor, one should imagine a stock trader of old, holding the ticker tape up to his eyes and monitoring every change, every blip in the market as the ticker tape machine clicks away, spewing out the latest market activity.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Managed Care sector, Keryx Biopharma and Citrix Systems were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded the Managed Care sector to Neutral from Attractive following WellPoint's (NYSE: WLP) reduced 2008 outlook. The firm said WellPoint's issues reflect a company specific underwriting error but also industry-wide pricing pressures which increase the risk of a cyclical slowdown in managed care. WellPoint was also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
Banc of America cut Keryx Biopharma (NASDAQ: KERX) to Neutral from Buy and lowered their target to $1.00 after Sulonex failed to meet its primary endpoint.
Jefferies downgraded shares of Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) to Hold from Buy, as they believe the first half of 2008 will be a tough year for software and are increasingly worried about the macro environment.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Level 3 Comm (NASDAQ: LVLT) was downgraded to Underweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
Earlier in the week I posted about finding the market bottom using that age-old handheld calculator, a white paper napkin. So, unfortunately it looks like I may be right again. Not exactly something I was hoping for, but if it has to be, it has to be. I wonder if my old napkin can outperform Wall Street super computers?
Is this an auction to the bottom? Are investors bidding things down instead of up? Looks like it from all the negative sentiment. Consumer sentiment is down, and short sellers are all excited, increasing their negative positions to new highs every day.
And here is the all-telling sign of capitulation: the ever-lying overly optimistic government is starting to admit how bad things are and throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. When does the turnaround come?
Brian and Andrea get up at 4:30 AM so that their customers may get steaming hot bagels and mini-pizzas every morning on their way to work. New York Bagel & Deli (NYBD) is the wake-up call for the Santa Monica neighborhood I work in, and recently we got one heck of a wake-up.
Brian informed me that "in the last two years he has seen his cost for a 50 pound bag of high gluten flour go from $8 to $16". After that huge rise, he recently was hit with a bigger shock to his business -- "the price went from $16 to $32 in just 3 weeks!"
He said "in some places in the country the price has reached as high as $36." Brian is very sensitive to the needs and desires of his loyal customer base and feels terrible about this increase. He is struggling with how to moderate the increases and the sticker shock on the cost of a dozen bagels. This is very difficult for him. This is a major blow to the heart of his business.
Two months into the year and investors' true 'metal' was tested, and mine more than most. February showed signs of improvement over January, but the last week ended hopes of any rally. The last day of January saw a 370 point drop in the Dow and February's last trading day closed with similar results, down 315 points.
The soft stock market did display many points worth noting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about break even for the month, indicating investors were showing some signs of support for large cap stocks, prompted in part by news of increased profits at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and share buy-backs at IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM).
Some of my picks also sagged a little more, although not as much, while two turned into positive territory. In January, only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech, defense contractor, was up. In February, the weak dollar and inflation concerns boosted Anglo American plc (ADR) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) -- two commodity plays.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says those aspiring to be rich need to find the stocks that can win now, and in any environment.
Everything's great over the long term ... if you are really rich!
I am thinking that because of the pleasing words I always hear from really rich people on TV: really rich money managers and investors and analysts.
And it's true. When you are really rich things are great. When you are really rich you can go invest in those really good municipal bonds that yield more than treasuries, the ones that you have to buy in $500,000 increments typically, although maybe $100,000 will get you in. When you are really rich who the heck cares if you sit in cash for the next 18 months. Doesn't hurt you.
When you are really rich it is great to have cash and watch real estate go down to prices that are reasonable or be able to go to a bank and say "what do you have in foreclosure?"
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Bunge Ltd. is worth a review.
Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is the world's No. 1 soybean processor, a leading South American fertilizer maker and provider, and a major U.S. food processor. BG is also the world's largest oilseed producer. Analysts see BG's sales advancing 13-17% in 2008, after a double-digit gain in 2007.
Further, analysts believe Bunge is well-positioned in the world's largest food production regions to take advantage of the world's fastest-growing consumption markets. In addition, analysts like BG's 80-nation footprint.
The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on soybean margins. A global economic slowdown would also (obviously) hurt BG's results.
The First Call mean rating for BG is: Hold [9 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $132 [high: $143, low: $120].
Stock Analysis: Bunge Ltd. is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from BG's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $72.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
January was a wild ride and February holds the promise of more of the same after yesterday's 370 point drop in the Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, was up. My two high flyers from last year, Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), were the biggest losers.
Among the indices, the DJIA lost the least and the NASDAQ lost the most. The average return for my eight picks was -7.82%. This underperformed the average of the indices that was -7.58% -- but my new stalking horse Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) bested both, so Buffett is still the man.
Now including dividends for my picks which average 3.91% divided by 12 for the one month allows for an additional .326%, reducing the loss to -7.494%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 12 adds 0.15%, reducing the loss to -7.43%. The dividends tighted things up. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.
The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:
The price-to-cash flow ratio has been repeatedly promoted in various publications as one of the more important metrics to consider when evaluating a stock to buy. Apparently over long periods of time it is more telling than the often quoted price-to-earnings ratio. I have read that cash flow is a key metric that "my pal Warren" looks at for Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) investments.
Here are the figures for the Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 in order from highest to lowest P/CF. The 12/28/08 starting stock price, yesterday's closing price and the current P/CF for the most recent fiscal year (MRFY) are listed. Only two stocks are up, while six are down.
Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) BG was $119.03, up to $133.00, P/CF 15.99
Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) RTN was $61.51, up to $61.58, P/CF 13.64
January has not been very kind to the overall stock market and many of my 2008 picks are down as well. The best bet so far has been the hungry world theme because Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) has only gone up.
The starting price on December 28, 2007 for BG was $119.03 per share. Thursday it closed at $127.10 and this morning it touched $130.50 intraday. With any investment I look at, I try my best to figure out which one might offer the highest risk-reward value; some work out and some do not. In the short run, this one seems to be working out. BG is up 9% when the market is down 9% - that works out very nicely indeed.
Of all my Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 picks, Bunge had the best year in 2007, rising 70% and I felt there was still plenty of room to run. There are many reasons to believe BG is going to have another great year. You should check it out for yourself.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while .gif){kind=logo}
Earlier in the week I posted about 
Brian and Andrea get up at 4:30 AM so that their customers may get steaming hot bagels and mini-pizzas every morning on their way to work. New York Bagel & Deli (NYBD) is the wake-up call for the Santa Monica neighborhood I work in, and recently we got one heck of a wake-up.
Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only 
Oil hits record $127.43 on supply concerns, raised Goldman forecast
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